Trump’s Ukraine Pivot: A Reset With Russia or a Strategic Misstep?
On May 19, following a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump announced via social media that Russia and Ukraine would “immediately start negotiations” toward a ceasefire. However, Trump was quick to clarify that the terms of peace would be determined solely by the two countries involved.
He noted that the Vatican is “very interested in hosting the negotiations” and that European leaders had been informed—effectively signaling a withdrawal of the United States from its own previously active mediation efforts in the war.
A Predictable Retreat?
Though Trump had previously boasted he could end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours,” his decision to step back was perhaps inevitable. The timing is notable: on May 16, the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years ended, as expected, without any ceasefire agreement.
Following those failed talks, Trump announced plans to speak directly with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin. This marked the beginning of what appears to be a strategic pivot rather than a serious diplomatic intervention. Reinforcing this perception, Vice President J.D. Vance told reporters shortly before the Trump-Putin call that the U.S. was ready to step back from “shuttle diplomacy.”
What Did the Trump-Putin Call Achieve?
Very little of substance. Russia reiterated its rigid demands, including Ukrainian territorial concessions and a guarantee of future neutrality. Putin expressed vague openness to a “memorandum” on peace, possibly including a temporary ceasefire—“if relevant agreements are reached.”
But there was no sense of urgency. The day before the call, Russia launched its largest drone assault of the war, hitting multiple regions, including Kyiv. And during the Trump-Putin conversation, the Russian leader was visiting a music school in Sochi—hardly the backdrop of a leader earnestly seeking peace.
Putin’s approach appears rooted in a broader goal: leveraging the war in Ukraine as a bargaining chip for a strategic reset with the United States, not as a crisis in need of resolution.
Trump’s Reset Gamble
Trump himself seemed far more interested in future relations with Russia than peace in Ukraine. He described the “tone and spirit” of his call with Putin as “excellent” and alluded to prospects of “large-scale trade.”
But this shift has deep geopolitical implications. It suggests Trump is willing to de-prioritize both Ukraine and U.S. allies in Europe to court closer ties with Moscow, despite the ongoing war.
Trump’s call with Zelensky was short and occurred before the Putin call. According to Zelensky, he urged Trump not to make any decisions “without us.” Yet shortly after speaking with Putin, Trump informed Zelensky and European leaders that the war would now be “their problem to solve.”
European Concerns and Global Ramifications
Unsurprisingly, this has triggered alarm in both Kyiv and across European capitals. The concern is that the U.S., in its eagerness to thaw relations with Russia, may leave Ukraine—and by extension, Europe—on its own.
But Trump’s attempt to strike a grand bargain with Putin is fraught with risk. It overlooks some immovable global dynamics:
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China has every incentive to continue backing Russia, ensuring Moscow remains an ally in Beijing’s strategic competition with the U.S.
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Europe, meanwhile, sees Ukraine’s defense as existential. Supporting Ukraine is no longer just about this war—it’s about deterring a revisionist Russia bent on reasserting influence over Eastern Europe.
In other words, Trump’s withdrawal from Ukraine diplomacy might clear a path to a short-term deal with Putin, but it comes at the cost of alienating allies the U.S. will need in its long-term rivalry with China.
Final Thought: A Pyrrhic Victory?
If Trump’s primary goal is to secure a U.S.-Russia reset, regardless of the fallout, it may seem like he’s gaining ground. But any such “victory” is likely to be short-lived.
Without meaningful pressure on Russia or assurances to Ukraine, peace is unlikely. And by turning away from NATO allies, Trump risks weakening the very alliances that have defined American leadership for decades.
Abandoning Ukraine might help Trump win Putin’s ear—but at the cost of strategic influence, global trust, and long-term stability.
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